As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 75% probability that the answer to “When will Tesla and SpaceX merge?” is “Before 2028”. 7 outcomes · resolves Dec 31, 2027.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
2. Trades execute at the current market price unless a limit order is placed.
3. Limit orders remain active until filled, cancelled, or the market closes.
4. Shares can be sold any time before the market closes.
5. Markets may be suspended or cancelled for ambiguous outcomes.
6. All balances and positions are denominated in USD.
Each outcome settles on its own terms. For “Before 2028”: If Tesla or SpaceX officially announces a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to acquire SpaceX, SpaceX to acquire Tesla, or the two entities to merge or combine in any structure that results in a transfer of controlling interest or consolidation of the two entities under common corporate ownership before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Resolved using Fox Business, ABC and CNBC.
This Financials market on OpinionKings has 7 outcomes. “Before 2028” leads at 75%, up from 73% a week ago. The next most likely outcome, “Before May 1, 2027”, is at 60%. Each price is the probability traders currently assign to that outcome, and it moves as they buy and sell. Trading closes Dec 31, 2027.
