As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 13% probability that martial law has been imposed in the United States before Jan 20, 2029. 3 outcomes · resolves Jan 20, 2029.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
2. Trades execute at the current market price unless a limit order is placed.
3. Limit orders remain active until filled, cancelled, or the market closes.
4. Shares can be sold any time before the market closes.
5. Markets may be suspended or cancelled for ambiguous outcomes.
6. All balances and positions are denominated in USD.
Each outcome settles on its own terms. For “Before Jan 20, 2029”: If martial law has been imposed in the United States before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. For the purposes of this market, ‘martial law’ shall mean the suspension of civil authority and the imposition of military control over designated regions as declared by the President of the United States or Congress. The Payout Criterion does not include mere designation of military control over a specific property, such as for the opening of a new military base. Resolved using ABC, Fox News and MSNBC.
This Politics market on OpinionKings has 3 outcomes. “Before Jan 20, 2029” leads at 13%, down from 25% a week ago. The next most likely outcome, “Before Jan 1, 2028”, is at 9%. Each price is the probability traders currently assign to that outcome, and it moves as they buy and sell. Trading closes Jan 20, 2029.
