As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 54% probability that states that have enacted the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact possess at least 270 electoral votes before Jan 1, 2030. 5 outcomes · resolves Jan 1, 2034.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
2. Trades execute at the current market price unless a limit order is placed.
3. Limit orders remain active until filled, cancelled, or the market closes.
4. Shares can be sold any time before the market closes.
5. Markets may be suspended or cancelled for ambiguous outcomes.
6. All balances and positions are denominated in USD.
Each outcome settles on its own terms. For “Before 2030”: If states that have enacted the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact possess at least 270 electoral votes before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes. For purposes of this Contract, a state or jurisdiction has "enacted" NPVIC legislation when such legislation has been signed into law by the governor, has become law without the governor's signature after the constitutional waiting period, or has been enacted by veto override; or has otherwise become law. Resolved using National Popular Vote Inc.
This Elections market on OpinionKings has 5 outcomes. “Before 2030” leads at 54%, down from 70% a week ago. The next most likely outcome, “Before 2032”, is at 51%. Each price is the probability traders currently assign to that outcome, and it moves as they buy and sell. Trading closes Jan 1, 2034.
