As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 99% probability that EIA reports Texas’s annual-average field production of crude oil for calendar year 2026 is above 5.6 million barrels/day. 4 outcomes · resolves Mar 31, 2027.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
2. Trades execute at the current market price unless a limit order is placed.
3. Limit orders remain active until filled, cancelled, or the market closes.
4. Shares can be sold any time before the market closes.
5. Markets may be suspended or cancelled for ambiguous outcomes.
6. All balances and positions are denominated in USD.
Each outcome settles on its own terms. For “Above 5.6 million barrels/day”: If EIA reports Texas’s annual-average field production of crude oil for calendar year 2026 is above 5.6 million barrels/day, then the market resolves to Yes. Resolution will use EIA’s Texas Field Production of Crude Oil statistic. Production is measured in thousand barrels per day and will be converted to million barrels per day by dividing by 1,000. EIA notes that its Texas estimates may differ from Railroad Commission of Texas figures, so only EIA data will be used. Resolved using Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
This Economics market on OpinionKings has 4 outcomes. “Above 5.6 million barrels/day” leads at 99%, up from 98% a week ago. The next most likely outcome, “Above 5.7 million barrels/day”, is at 97%. Each price is the probability traders currently assign to that outcome, and it moves as they buy and sell. Trading closes Mar 31, 2027.
