As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 28% probability that the US personal saving rate for 2026 is at least 4.0%, as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by Federal Reserve Economic Data. 5 outcomes · resolves Jan 29, 2027.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
2. Trades execute at the current market price unless a limit order is placed.
3. Limit orders remain active until filled, cancelled, or the market closes.
4. Shares can be sold any time before the market closes.
5. Markets may be suspended or cancelled for ambiguous outcomes.
6. All balances and positions are denominated in USD.
Each outcome settles on its own terms. For “4.0% or Above”: If the US personal saving rate for 2026 is at least 4.0%, as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by Federal Reserve Economic Data, then the market resolves to Yes. For purposes of this market, “personal saving rate” refers to FRED series PSAVERT, Personal Saving Rate, for December 2026. This value is reported as a percent, seasonally adjusted annual rate, and is sourced by FRED from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Resolved using Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation and Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index.
This Economics market on OpinionKings has 5 outcomes. “4.0% or Above” leads at 28%, down from 39% a week ago. The next most likely outcome, “3.5% to 3.9%”, is at 22%. Each price is the probability traders currently assign to that outcome, and it moves as they buy and sell. Trading closes Jan 29, 2027.
