As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 68% probability that the answer to “Will the average minimum temperature in Texas (DFW & IAH) fall below 20°F for at least 2 days within a 4-day span?” is “Before 2029”. 3 outcomes · resolves Jan 1, 2029.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
2. Trades execute at the current market price unless a limit order is placed.
3. Limit orders remain active until filled, cancelled, or the market closes.
4. Shares can be sold any time before the market closes.
5. Markets may be suspended or cancelled for ambiguous outcomes.
6. All balances and positions are denominated in USD.
Each outcome settles on its own terms. For “Before 2029”: If any span of 4 consecutive calendar days after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2029 contains at least 2 days where the Station Average at Dallas Fort Worth International Airport (DFW) and George Bush Intercontinental Airport, Houston (IAH) is below 20°F, then the market resolves to Yes. A "Qualifying Day" is a calendar day after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2029 for which the applicable Station Test is met. The Station Test is whether the Station Average for the calendar day is below 20. Resolved using National Weather Service.
This Climate and Weather market on OpinionKings has 3 outcomes. “Before 2029” leads at 68%, unchanged from a week ago. The next most likely outcome, “Before 2028”, is at 37%. Each price is the probability traders currently assign to that outcome, and it moves as they buy and sell. Trading closes Jan 1, 2029.
