As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 63% probability that JD Vance has announced that he will run for President of the United States in 2028 before Oct 1, 2027, including running for the nomination of any political party to contest that office. 8 outcomes · resolves Oct 1, 2027.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
2. Trades execute at the current market price unless a limit order is placed.
3. Limit orders remain active until filled, cancelled, or the market closes.
4. Shares can be sold any time before the market closes.
5. Markets may be suspended or cancelled for ambiguous outcomes.
6. All balances and positions are denominated in USD.
Each outcome settles on its own terms. For “Before Oct 1, 2027”: If JD Vance has announced that he will run for President of the United States in 2028 before Oct 1, 2027, including running for the nomination of any political party to contest that office, then the market resolves to Yes. The person must publicly announce their campaign for it to be reported by a Source Agency. Merely filing campaign paperwork with the Federal Election Commission or similar entity is insufficient without a public announcement. Resolved using ABC, Fox News and MSNBC.
This Elections market on OpinionKings has 8 outcomes. “Before Oct 1, 2027” leads at 63%, down from 75% a week ago. The next most likely outcome, “Before Jul 1, 2027”, is at 51%. Each price is the probability traders currently assign to that outcome, and it moves as they buy and sell. Trading closes Oct 1, 2027.
