As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 98% probability that the total number of human H5N1 cases reported in the United States during 2026 is above 3. 6 outcomes · resolves Jan 1, 2027.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
2. Trades execute at the current market price unless a limit order is placed.
3. Limit orders remain active until filled, cancelled, or the market closes.
4. Shares can be sold any time before the market closes.
5. Markets may be suspended or cancelled for ambiguous outcomes.
6. All balances and positions are denominated in USD.
Each outcome settles on its own terms. For “Above 3”: If the total number of human H5N1 cases reported in the United States during 2026 is above 3, then the market resolves to Yes. Cases are determined at 10:00 AM ET on the Expiration Date (January 8). Cases that actually occur between the end of the specified time period and Expiration do not count, but newly reported cases during this window do count if they are backdated to 2026. See the full rules for how Source Agencies are prioritized. Resolved using CDC and World Health Organization.
This Science and Technology market on OpinionKings has 6 outcomes. “Above 3” leads at 98%, up from 77% a week ago. The next most likely outcome, “Above 5”, is at 69%. Each price is the probability traders currently assign to that outcome, and it moves as they buy and sell. Trading closes Jan 1, 2027.
