As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 6% probability that Simcha Rothman formally takes office as Minister of Justice as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election before Oct 27, 2027. 15 outcomes · resolves Oct 27, 2027.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
2. Trades execute at the current market price unless a limit order is placed.
3. Limit orders remain active until filled, cancelled, or the market closes.
4. Shares can be sold any time before the market closes.
5. Markets may be suspended or cancelled for ambiguous outcomes.
6. All balances and positions are denominated in USD.
Each outcome settles on its own terms. For “Simcha Rothman”: If Simcha Rothman formally takes office as Minister of Justice as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election before Oct 27, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Only the first person to formally take office as Minister of Justice in the government formed after the 2026 Israeli legislative election, when it takes office or within 30 days after its first ministers are appointed, counts. Resolved using Deutsche Welle, MS Now and ABC.
This Elections market on OpinionKings has 15 outcomes. “Simcha Rothman” leads at 6%, unchanged from a week ago. The next most likely outcome, “Yariv Levin”, is at 5%. Each price is the probability traders currently assign to that outcome, and it moves as they buy and sell. Trading closes Oct 27, 2027.
