As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 95% probability that the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Dave Bronson in the first round of the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election is 12% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints. 9 outcomes · resolves Nov 3, 2027.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
2. Trades execute at the current market price unless a limit order is placed.
3. Limit orders remain active until filled, cancelled, or the market closes.
4. Shares can be sold any time before the market closes.
5. Markets may be suspended or cancelled for ambiguous outcomes.
6. All balances and positions are denominated in USD.
Each outcome settles on its own terms. For “At least 12%”: If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Dave Bronson in the first round of the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election is 12% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. The percentage is calculated as (total votes received by Dave Bronson ÷ total valid votes cast) × 100, rounded to two decimal places. Except as provided in the Contract, resolution is based on certified/official results only, not preliminary results. Write-in votes are included if they appear in certified results.
This Elections market on OpinionKings has 9 outcomes. “At least 12%” leads at 95%, up from 65% a week ago. The next most likely outcome, “At least 10%”, is at 94%. Each price is the probability traders currently assign to that outcome, and it moves as they buy and sell. Trading closes Nov 3, 2027.
