As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 39% probability that the answer to “Will a 1-megawatt data center go live in orbit?” is “Before Jan 1, 2035”. 6 outcomes · resolves Dec 31, 2034.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
2. Trades execute at the current market price unless a limit order is placed.
3. Limit orders remain active until filled, cancelled, or the market closes.
4. Shares can be sold any time before the market closes.
5. Markets may be suspended or cancelled for ambiguous outcomes.
6. All balances and positions are denominated in USD.
Each outcome settles on its own terms. For “Before Jan 1, 2035”: If the operational deployment in Earth orbit of a data center delivering at least 1 megawatt of electrical power to compute hardware on a single spacecraft or a unified co-orbital cluster operating as one compute system, actively processing workloads is confirmed after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2035, then the market resolves to Yes. Only reporting from any of the Source Agencies qualifies for the purposes of this market. Resolved using The Verge, ABC and Fox News.
This Politics market on OpinionKings has 6 outcomes. “Before Jan 1, 2035” leads at 39%, down from 43% a week ago. The next most likely outcome, “Before Jan 1, 2033”, is at 32%. Each price is the probability traders currently assign to that outcome, and it moves as they buy and sell. Trading closes Dec 31, 2034.
