As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 9% probability that more than 5 hurricanes of category 1 or above occur in the Central Pacific between May 15, 2026 and December 01, 2026 as confirmed by the National Weather Service or equivalent national weather service. 2 outcomes · resolves Dec 1, 2026.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
2. Trades execute at the current market price unless a limit order is placed.
3. Limit orders remain active until filled, cancelled, or the market closes.
4. Shares can be sold any time before the market closes.
5. Markets may be suspended or cancelled for ambiguous outcomes.
6. All balances and positions are denominated in USD.
If more than 5 hurricanes of category 1 or above occur in the Central Pacific between May 15, 2026 and December 01, 2026 as confirmed by the National Weather Service or equivalent national weather service, then the market resolves to Yes. Resolved using National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
This Climate and Weather market on OpinionKings has 2 outcomes. The chance of Yes is 9%, down from 36% a week ago. Each price is the probability traders currently assign to that outcome, and it moves as they buy and sell. Trading closes Dec 1, 2026.
