As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 70% probability that OpenAI announces that they have attained AGI by Dec 31, 2029. 3 outcomes · resolves Dec 31, 2029.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
2. Trades execute at the current market price unless a limit order is placed.
3. Limit orders remain active until filled, cancelled, or the market closes.
4. Shares can be sold any time before the market closes.
5. Markets may be suspended or cancelled for ambiguous outcomes.
6. All balances and positions are denominated in USD.
Each outcome settles on its own terms. For “Before 2030”: If OpenAI announces that they have attained AGI by Dec 31, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Resolved using OpenAI.
This Science and Technology market on OpinionKings has 3 outcomes. “Before 2030” leads at 70%, up from 63% a week ago. The next most likely outcome, “Before 2028”, is at 56%. Each price is the probability traders currently assign to that outcome, and it moves as they buy and sell. Trading closes Dec 31, 2029.
