As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 74% probability that Kevin Warsh leaves as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2031. 5 outcomes · resolves Dec 31, 2030.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
2. Trades execute at the current market price unless a limit order is placed.
3. Limit orders remain active until filled, cancelled, or the market closes.
4. Shares can be sold any time before the market closes.
5. Markets may be suspended or cancelled for ambiguous outcomes.
6. All balances and positions are denominated in USD.
Each outcome settles on its own terms. For “Before Jan 1, 2031”: If Kevin Warsh leaves as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2031, then the market resolves to Yes. Kevin Warsh must have an actual departure date and vacate the role within the time period. Resolved using The Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg News and The Washington Post.
This Politics market on OpinionKings has 5 outcomes. “Before Jan 1, 2031” leads at 74%, unchanged from a week ago. The next most likely outcome, “Before Jan 1, 2029”, is at 11%. Each price is the probability traders currently assign to that outcome, and it moves as they buy and sell. Trading closes Dec 31, 2030.
