As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 30% probability that Donald Trump leaves office before January 20, 2029. 3 outcomes · resolves Jan 20, 2029.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
2. Trades execute at the current market price unless a limit order is placed.
3. Limit orders remain active until filled, cancelled, or the market closes.
4. Shares can be sold any time before the market closes.
5. Markets may be suspended or cancelled for ambiguous outcomes.
6. All balances and positions are denominated in USD.
Each outcome settles on its own terms. For “Before January 20, 2029”: If Donald Trump leaves office before January 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. An announcement that the President will leave the office within the next year is also encompassed by the Payout Criterion. An acknowledgement by Donald Trump that they will leave office due solely to the scheduled expiration of a constitutionally or legally mandated term limit does not satisfy the Payout Criterion. Resolved using ABC, Fox News and MSNBC.
This Politics market on OpinionKings has 3 outcomes. “Before January 20, 2029” leads at 30%, down from 32% a week ago. The next most likely outcome, “Before 2028”, is at 18%. Each price is the probability traders currently assign to that outcome, and it moves as they buy and sell. Trading closes Jan 20, 2029.
