As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 68% probability that Google has the top-ranked LLM on Dec 31, 2026. 8 outcomes · resolves Dec 31, 2026.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
2. Trades execute at the current market price unless a limit order is placed.
3. Limit orders remain active until filled, cancelled, or the market closes.
4. Shares can be sold any time before the market closes.
5. Markets may be suspended or cancelled for ambiguous outcomes.
6. All balances and positions are denominated in USD.
Each outcome settles on its own terms. For “Gemini”: If Google has the top-ranked LLM on Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win. If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win. If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will win. Important information: When checking the source for this market, check the 'Remove Style Control' toggle. Resolved using LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control).
This Science and Technology market on OpinionKings has 8 outcomes. “Gemini” leads at 68%, up from 55% a week ago. The next most likely outcome, “Claude”, is at 26%. Each price is the probability traders currently assign to that outcome, and it moves as they buy and sell. Trading closes Dec 31, 2026.
