As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 20% probability that Ilhan Omar has been formally charged with a federal crime before Jan 1, 2027. 46 outcomes · resolves Dec 31, 2026.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
2. Trades execute at the current market price unless a limit order is placed.
3. Limit orders remain active until filled, cancelled, or the market closes.
4. Shares can be sold any time before the market closes.
5. Markets may be suspended or cancelled for ambiguous outcomes.
6. All balances and positions are denominated in USD.
Each outcome settles on its own terms. For “Ilhan Omar”: If Ilhan Omar has been formally charged with a federal crime after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Charges filed in military courts are included. The reinstatement of charges filed prior to Issuance does not count; only the filing of a new charging document after Issuance triggers the Payout Criterion. Formal charges require the filing of a criminal complaint, information, or indictment with an appropriate court. Resolved using Bloomberg, ABC and Fox News.
This Politics market on OpinionKings has 46 outcomes. “Ilhan Omar” leads at 20%, down from 25% a week ago. The next most likely outcome, “John Brennan”, is at 12%. Each price is the probability traders currently assign to that outcome, and it moves as they buy and sell. Trading closes Dec 31, 2026.
