As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 70% probability that the answer to “Will the filibuster be weakened?” is “Before Jan 1, 2030”. 9 outcomes · resolves Jan 1, 2030.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
2. Trades execute at the current market price unless a limit order is placed.
3. Limit orders remain active until filled, cancelled, or the market closes.
4. Shares can be sold any time before the market closes.
5. Markets may be suspended or cancelled for ambiguous outcomes.
6. All balances and positions are denominated in USD.
Each outcome settles on its own terms. For “Before Jan 1, 2030”: If there is a change in U.S. Senate rules or precedent that lowers the threshold for cloture for any legislative action whose threshold for cloture at time of Issuance is three-fifths of all Senators duly chosen and sworn before January 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes. Modifications to budget reconciliation rules are not encompassed and do not resolve the market to Yes. See full rules for examples. Resolved using U.S. Senate and Library of Congress.
