As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 6% probability that Luis Antonio Tagle becomes the first person elected Pope before Jan 1, 2070. 7 outcomes · resolves Jan 1, 2070.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
2. Trades execute at the current market price unless a limit order is placed.
3. Limit orders remain active until filled, cancelled, or the market closes.
4. Shares can be sold any time before the market closes.
5. Markets may be suspended or cancelled for ambiguous outcomes.
6. All balances and positions are denominated in USD.
Each outcome settles on its own terms. For “Luis Antonio Tagle”: If Luis Antonio Tagle becomes the first person elected Pope before Jan 1, 2070, then the market resolves to Yes. Resolved using Fox News, MSNBC and The Wall Street Journal.
This Elections market on OpinionKings has 7 outcomes. “Luis Antonio Tagle” leads at 6%, down from 13% a week ago. The next most likely outcome, “Pietro Parolin”, is at 4%. Each price is the probability traders currently assign to that outcome, and it moves as they buy and sell. Trading closes Jan 1, 2070.
