As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 21% probability that the California Secretary of State officially certifies that at least one ballot initiative on California secession has qualified for the ballot before Jan 1, 2030. 2 outcomes · resolves Jan 1, 2030.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
2. Trades execute at the current market price unless a limit order is placed.
3. Limit orders remain active until filled, cancelled, or the market closes.
4. Shares can be sold any time before the market closes.
5. Markets may be suspended or cancelled for ambiguous outcomes.
6. All balances and positions are denominated in USD.
If the California Secretary of State officially certifies that at least one ballot initiative on California secession has qualified for the ballot before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes. Resolved using California county registrars' offices, Ballotpedia and CalMatters.
This Elections market on OpinionKings has 2 outcomes. The chance of Yes is 21%, down from 22% a week ago. Each price is the probability traders currently assign to that outcome, and it moves as they buy and sell. Trading closes Jan 1, 2030.
