As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 12% probability that any country formally leaves the EU by Jan 1, 2030. 2 outcomes · resolves Jan 1, 2030.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
2. Trades execute at the current market price unless a limit order is placed.
3. Limit orders remain active until filled, cancelled, or the market closes.
4. Shares can be sold any time before the market closes.
5. Markets may be suspended or cancelled for ambiguous outcomes.
6. All balances and positions are denominated in USD.
If any country formally leaves the EU by Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes. Resolved using EU.
This Elections market on OpinionKings has 2 outcomes. The chance of Yes is 12%, up from 9% a week ago. Each price is the probability traders currently assign to that outcome, and it moves as they buy and sell. Trading closes Jan 1, 2030.
