As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 10% probability that Elon Musk has been formally charged with any crime in Spain or France before Jan 1, 2027. 2 outcomes · resolves Dec 31, 2026.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
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If Elon Musk has been formally charged with any crime in Spain or France after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Formal charges require the filing of a criminal complaint, information, or indictment with an appropriate court. Arrests without charges, being named as a target of investigation, civil lawsuits, and administrative actions do not constitute charges. Traffic violations that don't require court appearances and sealed charges that remain sealed through the deadline also don't count. Resolved using Bloomberg, ABC and Fox News.
This Politics market on OpinionKings has 2 outcomes. The chance of Yes is 10%, up from 7% a week ago. Each price is the probability traders currently assign to that outcome, and it moves as they buy and sell. Trading closes Dec 31, 2026.
