As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 62% probability that the number of distinct government shutdowns (as defined in the GOVTSHUTLENGTH contract, with shutdown status checked at 10:00 AM ET each day) is exactly 2 in 2026. 4 outcomes · resolves Jan 1, 2027.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
2. Trades execute at the current market price unless a limit order is placed.
3. Limit orders remain active until filled, cancelled, or the market closes.
4. Shares can be sold any time before the market closes.
5. Markets may be suspended or cancelled for ambiguous outcomes.
6. All balances and positions are denominated in USD.
Each outcome settles on its own terms. For “2”: If the number of distinct government shutdowns (as defined in the GOVTSHUTLENGTH contract, with shutdown status checked at 10:00 AM ET each day) is exactly 2 in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Link to associated contract: GOVTSHUTLENGTH.
This Politics market on OpinionKings has 4 outcomes. “2” leads at 62%, up from 58% a week ago. The next most likely outcome, “3”, is at 31%. Each price is the probability traders currently assign to that outcome, and it moves as they buy and sell. Trading closes Jan 1, 2027.
