As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 71% probability that the individual holding the title of President of France at the time of Issuance is the first within G7 leaders to leave their position. 7 outcomes · resolves Jan 1, 2045.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
2. Trades execute at the current market price unless a limit order is placed.
3. Limit orders remain active until filled, cancelled, or the market closes.
4. Shares can be sold any time before the market closes.
5. Markets may be suspended or cancelled for ambiguous outcomes.
6. All balances and positions are denominated in USD.
Each outcome settles on its own terms. For “Emmanuel Macron”: If the individual holding the title of President of France at the time of Issuance is the first within G7 leaders to leave their position, then the market resolves to Yes. The individual must actually leave office and no longer hold their title. An announcement of resignation or intention to leave is not sufficient. Resolved using Fox News, MSNBC and The Wall Street Journal.
This Politics market on OpinionKings has 7 outcomes. “Emmanuel Macron” leads at 71%, down from 76% a week ago. The next most likely outcome, “Giorgia Meloni”, is at 13%. Each price is the probability traders currently assign to that outcome, and it moves as they buy and sell. Trading closes Jan 1, 2045.
