As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 16% probability that Ding Xuexiang is announced as the first new non-interim leader of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) before Jan 1, 2045. 14 outcomes · resolves Dec 31, 2044.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
2. Trades execute at the current market price unless a limit order is placed.
3. Limit orders remain active until filled, cancelled, or the market closes.
4. Shares can be sold any time before the market closes.
5. Markets may be suspended or cancelled for ambiguous outcomes.
6. All balances and positions are denominated in USD.
Each outcome settles on its own terms. For “Ding Xuexiang”: If Ding Xuexiang is announced as the first new non-interim leader of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) before Jan 1, 2045, then the market resolves to Yes. The market resolves when the first new non-interim leader is officially announced by the party or credible sources. The person need not have taken office before the deadline date, only be announced as the incoming leader. Interim or acting leaders do not qualify unless they are subsequently announced as the permanent leader. Resolved using ABC, Fox News and MSNBC.
This Politics market on OpinionKings has 14 outcomes. “Ding Xuexiang” leads at 16%, down from 23% a week ago. The next most likely outcome, “Li Qiang”, is at 10%. Each price is the probability traders currently assign to that outcome, and it moves as they buy and sell. Trading closes Dec 31, 2044.
