As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 12% probability that government spending (FGEXPND) is at least $100 billion below the Q4 2024 level in any quarter through Q4 2028. 10 outcomes · resolves Mar 31, 2029.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
2. Trades execute at the current market price unless a limit order is placed.
3. Limit orders remain active until filled, cancelled, or the market closes.
4. Shares can be sold any time before the market closes.
5. Markets may be suspended or cancelled for ambiguous outcomes.
6. All balances and positions are denominated in USD.
Each outcome settles on its own terms. For “At least 100 billion”: If government spending (FGEXPND) is at least $100 billion below the Q4 2024 level in any quarter through Q4 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Each quarter from Q1 2025 to Q4 2028 is compared against Q4 2024. Resolved using FRED.
This Economics market on OpinionKings has 10 outcomes. “At least 100 billion” leads at 12%, up from 7% a week ago. The next most likely outcome, “At least $1 billion”, is at 11%. Each price is the probability traders currently assign to that outcome, and it moves as they buy and sell. Trading closes Mar 31, 2029.
