As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 16% probability that KaiCenat's peak number of active paid Twitch subscribers is at least 600000 at any time before Jan 1, 2027. 6 outcomes · resolves Dec 31, 2026.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
2. Trades execute at the current market price unless a limit order is placed.
3. Limit orders remain active until filled, cancelled, or the market closes.
4. Shares can be sold any time before the market closes.
5. Markets may be suspended or cancelled for ambiguous outcomes.
6. All balances and positions are denominated in USD.
Each outcome settles on its own terms. For “600,000 or more”: If KaiCenat's peak number of active paid Twitch subscribers is at least 600000 at any time before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Active paid Twitch subscribers includes Tier 1 subscriptions (including Prime Gaming), Tier 2, and Tier 3 subscriptions, all counted as single subscriptions without weighting. Gift subscriptions that are currently active are included. Followers, expired subscriptions, channel points, bits, and viewers are NOT included. Only the primary Twitch channel specified at issuance is considered. Resolved using Polygon, The Verge and The Wall Street Journal.
This Social market on OpinionKings has 6 outcomes. “600,000 or more” leads at 16%, up from 9% a week ago. The next most likely outcome, “800,000 or more”, is at 14%. Each price is the probability traders currently assign to that outcome, and it moves as they buy and sell. Trading closes Dec 31, 2026.
