As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 38% probability that the President pardons, commutes the sentence of, or gives reprieve to between 100 and 499 persons before Jan 1, 2027. 4 outcomes · resolves Jan 1, 2027.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
2. Trades execute at the current market price unless a limit order is placed.
3. Limit orders remain active until filled, cancelled, or the market closes.
4. Shares can be sold any time before the market closes.
5. Markets may be suspended or cancelled for ambiguous outcomes.
6. All balances and positions are denominated in USD.
Each outcome settles on its own terms. For “100 to 499”: If the President pardons, commutes the sentence of, or gives reprieve to between 100 and 499 persons after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Resolved using White House and The New York Times.
This Politics market on OpinionKings has 4 outcomes. “100 to 499” leads at 38%, down from 47% a week ago. The next most likely outcome, “500 to 999”, is at 21%. Each price is the probability traders currently assign to that outcome, and it moves as they buy and sell. Trading closes Jan 1, 2027.
