As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 71% probability that the annual global mean surface temperature anomaly has reached or exceeded +2.0°C above pre-industrial levels (1850-1900 average) in any calendar year before Jan 1, 2050. 2 outcomes · resolves Dec 31, 2049.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
2. Trades execute at the current market price unless a limit order is placed.
3. Limit orders remain active until filled, cancelled, or the market closes.
4. Shares can be sold any time before the market closes.
5. Markets may be suspended or cancelled for ambiguous outcomes.
6. All balances and positions are denominated in USD.
If the annual global mean surface temperature anomaly has reached or exceeded +2.0°C above pre-industrial levels (1850-1900 average) in any calendar year before Jan 1, 2050, then the market resolves to Yes. At least two of the Source Agencies must report that we have hit the 2.0°C threshold. Resolved using Berkeley Earth, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies and NCEI.
This Climate and Weather market on OpinionKings has 2 outcomes. The chance of Yes is 71%, up from 70% a week ago. Each price is the probability traders currently assign to that outcome, and it moves as they buy and sell. Trading closes Dec 31, 2049.
