As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 10% probability that the United States announces a new free trade agreement, multilateral trade agreement, trade framework, or economic cooperation arrangement with Cuba before Jan 1, 2027. 2 outcomes · resolves Dec 31, 2026.
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If the United States announces a new free trade agreement, multilateral trade agreement, trade framework, or economic cooperation arrangement with Cuba before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Preliminary agreements, frameworks, or agreements in principle do count as long as they are presented as a new trade-related agreement. Cuba must also acknowledge the agreement. A mere declaration of intent to start negotiations or "explore a trade deal" is not sufficient. Resolved using MSNBC, White House and The Wall Street Journal.
