As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 97% probability that the average number of measles cases annually from 2025 to 2028 is at least 2000. 7 outcomes · resolves Jan 1, 2029.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
2. Trades execute at the current market price unless a limit order is placed.
3. Limit orders remain active until filled, cancelled, or the market closes.
4. Shares can be sold any time before the market closes.
5. Markets may be suspended or cancelled for ambiguous outcomes.
6. All balances and positions are denominated in USD.
Each outcome settles on its own terms. For “At least 2000”: If the average number of measles cases annually from 2025 to 2028 is at least 2000, then the market resolves to Yes. Resolved using CDC.
This Health market on OpinionKings has 7 outcomes. “At least 2000” leads at 97%, up from 93% a week ago. The next most likely outcome, “At least 2500”, is at 86%. Each price is the probability traders currently assign to that outcome, and it moves as they buy and sell. Trading closes Jan 1, 2029.
