As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 68% probability that the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that the unemployment rate (U-3) is Below 5% and CPI-U (All items) 12-month percent change is at least 3.5% in Dec 2026. 4 outcomes · resolves Jan 13, 2027.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
2. Trades execute at the current market price unless a limit order is placed.
3. Limit orders remain active until filled, cancelled, or the market closes.
4. Shares can be sold any time before the market closes.
5. Markets may be suspended or cancelled for ambiguous outcomes.
6. All balances and positions are denominated in USD.
Each outcome settles on its own terms. For “Overheating”: If the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that the unemployment rate (U-3) is Below 5% and CPI-U (All items) 12-month percent change is at least 3.5% in Dec 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The market closes at 8:25 AM on the day of the expected release of the inflation data for Dec 2026. Resolved using Federal Reserve Economic Data and Federal Reserve Economic Data.
This Economics market on OpinionKings has 4 outcomes. “Overheating” leads at 68%, down from 90% a week ago. The next most likely outcome, “Soft landing”, is at 31%. Each price is the probability traders currently assign to that outcome, and it moves as they buy and sell. Trading closes Jan 13, 2027.
