As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 97% probability that EIA reports that dry natural gas production from the Marcellus formation for calendar year 2026 is above 9.50 Tcf. 6 outcomes · resolves Mar 31, 2027.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
2. Trades execute at the current market price unless a limit order is placed.
3. Limit orders remain active until filled, cancelled, or the market closes.
4. Shares can be sold any time before the market closes.
5. Markets may be suspended or cancelled for ambiguous outcomes.
6. All balances and positions are denominated in USD.
Each outcome settles on its own terms. For “Above 9.50 Tcf”: If EIA reports that dry natural gas production from the Marcellus formation for calendar year 2026 is above 9.50 Tcf, then the market resolves to Yes. The Underlying is EIA’s Marcellus formation dry natural gas production series. Monthly average production rates will be converted into monthly volumes using the number of calendar days in each month and summed across January–December 2026. Production from the broader Appalachia region or Utica formation will not be included. Resolved using Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
This Economics market on OpinionKings has 6 outcomes. “Above 9.50 Tcf” leads at 97%, up from 94% a week ago. The next most likely outcome, “Above 9.25 Tcf”, is at 97%. Each price is the probability traders currently assign to that outcome, and it moves as they buy and sell. Trading closes Mar 31, 2027.
