As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 7% probability that Jair Bolsonaro receives a pardon, clemency, or substantially equivalent official act of legal forgiveness from a competent authority before Mar 1, 2027. 2 outcomes · resolves Mar 1, 2027.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
2. Trades execute at the current market price unless a limit order is placed.
3. Limit orders remain active until filled, cancelled, or the market closes.
4. Shares can be sold any time before the market closes.
5. Markets may be suspended or cancelled for ambiguous outcomes.
6. All balances and positions are denominated in USD.
Each outcome settles on its own terms. For “Before Mar 1, 2027”: If Jair Bolsonaro receives a pardon, clemency, or substantially equivalent official act of legal forgiveness from a competent authority before Mar 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. A pardon, commutation or amnesty granted by a competent Brazilian authority counts, including a decree or law that covers him without naming him, even if a court later suspends or annuls it.
This Politics market on OpinionKings has 2 outcomes. “Before Mar 1, 2027” leads at 7%, down from 9% a week ago. The next most likely outcome, “Before Jan 10, 2027”, is at 4%. Each price is the probability traders currently assign to that outcome, and it moves as they buy and sell. Trading closes Mar 1, 2027.
