As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 100% probability that the U.S. federal debt increases to 40 trillion for any quarter in Q4 2024 to Q4 2028. 6 outcomes · resolves Mar 31, 2029.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
2. Trades execute at the current market price unless a limit order is placed.
3. Limit orders remain active until filled, cancelled, or the market closes.
4. Shares can be sold any time before the market closes.
5. Markets may be suspended or cancelled for ambiguous outcomes.
6. All balances and positions are denominated in USD.
Each outcome settles on its own terms. For “$40 trillion”: If the U.S. federal debt increases to 40 trillion for any quarter in Q4 2024 to Q4 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Resolved using FRED.
This Politics market on OpinionKings has 6 outcomes. “$40 trillion” leads at 100%, unchanged from a week ago. The next most likely outcome, “$42.5 trillion”, is at 93%. Each price is the probability traders currently assign to that outcome, and it moves as they buy and sell. Trading closes Mar 31, 2029.
