As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 96% probability that the National Basketball Association (NBA) officially announces the award of an expansion team franchise to Las Vegas before January 1, 2030. 6 outcomes · resolves Dec 31, 2029.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
2. Trades execute at the current market price unless a limit order is placed.
3. Limit orders remain active until filled, cancelled, or the market closes.
4. Shares can be sold any time before the market closes.
5. Markets may be suspended or cancelled for ambiguous outcomes.
6. All balances and positions are denominated in USD.
Each outcome settles on its own terms. For “Before Jan 1, 2030”: If the National Basketball Association (NBA) officially announces the award of an expansion team franchise to Las Vegas after issuance and before January 1, 2030, the market resolves to Yes. An official NBA expansion franchise award specifically naming Las Vegas or its metropolitan area is required, with formal approval by the NBA Board of Governors. Resolved using Sports Business Journal, The Wall Street Journal and Associated Press.
