As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 16% probability that the number of VEI4 volcanic eruptions worldwide with a GVP-attributed start in 2026 is at least 1. 3 outcomes · resolves Jun 29, 2027.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
2. Trades execute at the current market price unless a limit order is placed.
3. Limit orders remain active until filled, cancelled, or the market closes.
4. Shares can be sold any time before the market closes.
5. Markets may be suspended or cancelled for ambiguous outcomes.
6. All balances and positions are denominated in USD.
Each outcome settles on its own terms. For “At least 1”: If the number of VEI4 volcanic eruptions worldwide with a GVP-attributed start in 2026 is at least 1, then the market resolves to Yes.
This Climate and Weather market on OpinionKings has 3 outcomes. “At least 1” leads at 16%, down from 38% a week ago. The next most likely outcome, “At least 2”, is at 9%. Each price is the probability traders currently assign to that outcome, and it moves as they buy and sell. Trading closes Jun 29, 2027.
