As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 20% probability that Haley Stevens leaves, announces that they are leaving, or is expelled from the Democratic party before Jan 1, 2027. 6 outcomes · resolves Jan 1, 2027.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
2. Trades execute at the current market price unless a limit order is placed.
3. Limit orders remain active until filled, cancelled, or the market closes.
4. Shares can be sold any time before the market closes.
5. Markets may be suspended or cancelled for ambiguous outcomes.
6. All balances and positions are denominated in USD.
Each outcome settles on its own terms. For “Haley Stevens”: If Haley Stevens leaves, announces that they are leaving, or is expelled from the Democratic party before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Haley Stevens leaves the Democratic party if, after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, any of the following occurs: Haley Stevens changes their official party registration from Democratic to another party or to independent or unaffiliated status. Haley Stevens announces they are no longer a member of the Democratic party. Resolved using ABC, Fox News and MSNBC.
This Elections market on OpinionKings has 6 outcomes. “Haley Stevens” leads at 20%, down from 52% a week ago. The next most likely outcome, “Thomas Massie”, is at 10%. Each price is the probability traders currently assign to that outcome, and it moves as they buy and sell. Trading closes Jan 1, 2027.
