As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 90% probability that a writ for a UK parliamentary by-election is issued by the relevant Clerk of the Crown before Jan 1, 2028. 4 outcomes · resolves Dec 31, 2027.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
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Each outcome settles on its own terms. For “Before Jan 1, 2028”: If a writ for a UK parliamentary by-election is issued by the relevant Clerk of the Crown after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Only reporting from the Clerk of the Crown in Chancery and the Clerk of the Crown for Northern Ireland qualifies for the purposes of this market. Reports that merely reference prior publications (from before Issuance) do not qualify. Resolved using The Verge, ABC and Fox News.
