As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 25% probability that a member of the Democratic Party wins the popular vote in 2028 by a margin of between 9.00-100.00%. 20 outcomes · resolves May 6, 2029.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
2. Trades execute at the current market price unless a limit order is placed.
3. Limit orders remain active until filled, cancelled, or the market closes.
4. Shares can be sold any time before the market closes.
5. Markets may be suspended or cancelled for ambiguous outcomes.
6. All balances and positions are denominated in USD.
Each outcome settles on its own terms. For “Democratic by 9.0% or more”: If a member of the Democratic Party wins the popular vote in 2028 by a margin of between 9.00-100.00%, then the market resolves to Yes. The popular vote margin is calculated as (total votes for the winner minus total votes for second place) divided by total votes, times 100, rounded to two decimal places. The calculation uses the states' and DC's most recent certificates of ascertainment of presidential election results as of the date of the January joint session of Congress. Resolved using United States Congress.
This Elections market on OpinionKings has 20 outcomes. “Democratic by 9.0% or more” leads at 25%, down from 60% a week ago. The next most likely outcome, “Democratic by 7.0% to 7.99%”, is at 23%. Each price is the probability traders currently assign to that outcome, and it moves as they buy and sell. Trading closes May 6, 2029.
