As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 41% probability that the first FISA Section 702 reauthorization enacted extends the authority by at least 2 years has become law before Jan 1, 2027. 5 outcomes · resolves Jan 1, 2027.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
2. Trades execute at the current market price unless a limit order is placed.
3. Limit orders remain active until filled, cancelled, or the market closes.
4. Shares can be sold any time before the market closes.
5. Markets may be suspended or cancelled for ambiguous outcomes.
6. All balances and positions are denominated in USD.
Each outcome settles on its own terms. For “At least 2 years”: If the first FISA Section 702 reauthorization enacted after Issuance extends the authority by at least 2 years has become law after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. The period by which a reauthorization “extends the authority” is measured from the date the legislation becomes law to the new expiration date it sets for Section 702 authority. Resolved using White House and Library of Congress.
This Politics market on OpinionKings has 5 outcomes. “At least 2 years” leads at 41%, up from 40% a week ago. The next most likely outcome, “At least 30 days”, is at 32%. Each price is the probability traders currently assign to that outcome, and it moves as they buy and sell. Trading closes Jan 1, 2027.
