As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 54% probability that Howard Lutnick leaves as Commerce Secretary before Jul 1, 2027. 6 outcomes · resolves Dec 31, 2028.
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Each outcome settles on its own terms. For “Before Jul 1, 2027”: If Howard Lutnick leaves as Commerce Secretary before Jul 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Howard Lutnick must have an actual departure date and vacate the role within the time period. Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving, resigning from, or retiring from the role unless the individual formally and permanently ceases to hold the position. Resolved using The Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg News and The Washington Post.
