As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 96% probability that California’s total number of new privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in calendar year 2026 is above 100,000. 6 outcomes · resolves Jan 27, 2027.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
2. Trades execute at the current market price unless a limit order is placed.
3. Limit orders remain active until filled, cancelled, or the market closes.
4. Shares can be sold any time before the market closes.
5. Markets may be suspended or cancelled for ambiguous outcomes.
6. All balances and positions are denominated in USD.
Each outcome settles on its own terms. For “Above 100,000”: If California’s total number of new privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in calendar year 2026 is above 100,000, then the market resolves to Yes. The Underlying is the calendar-year total number of housing units authorized, not the number of permit documents issued. It includes units in single-family and multifamily structures. Resolution uses the first U.S. Census Bureau state-level release containing complete January–December 2026 data; subsequent revisions do not affect resolution. Resolved using Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
This Economics market on OpinionKings has 6 outcomes. “Above 100,000” leads at 96%, unchanged from a week ago. The next most likely outcome, “Above 105,000”, is at 90%. Each price is the probability traders currently assign to that outcome, and it moves as they buy and sell. Trading closes Jan 27, 2027.
