As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 7% probability that the answer to “Will Trump order mandatory pre-release federal review of AI models?” is Yes. 2 outcomes · resolves Dec 31, 2026.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
2. Trades execute at the current market price unless a limit order is placed.
3. Limit orders remain active until filled, cancelled, or the market closes.
4. Shares can be sold any time before the market closes.
5. Markets may be suspended or cancelled for ambiguous outcomes.
6. All balances and positions are denominated in USD.
If Donald Trump has taken any executive action establishing or directing a mandatory federal review, evaluation, or approval process that at least one class of AI models must complete before public release before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. The qualifying action must be of the specific type designated (executive order, presidential memorandum, proclamation, directive, determination, or finding), be signed by the President personally during the specified time period, and explicitly address the topic in the document's operative provisions, title, or official White House summary. Resolved using Federal Register.
This Politics market on OpinionKings has 2 outcomes. The chance of Yes is 7%, down from 9% a week ago. Each price is the probability traders currently assign to that outcome, and it moves as they buy and sell. Trading closes Dec 31, 2026.
