As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 27% probability that humans have a self-sufficient colony of at least 10 people residing on Mars for at least one Earth year before Jan 1, 2050. 2 outcomes · resolves Dec 31, 2049.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
2. Trades execute at the current market price unless a limit order is placed.
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If humans have a self-sufficient colony of at least 10 people residing on Mars for at least one Earth year before Jan 1, 2050, then the market resolves to Yes. Resolved using Science Magazine, Space News and Scientific American.
This Science and Technology market on OpinionKings has 2 outcomes. The chance of Yes is 27%, up from 25% a week ago. Each price is the probability traders currently assign to that outcome, and it moves as they buy and sell. Trading closes Dec 31, 2049.
