As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 99% probability that the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 4.00% following the Federal Reserve's Jun 9, 2027 meeting. 25 outcomes · resolves Jun 9, 2027.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
2. Trades execute at the current market price unless a limit order is placed.
3. Limit orders remain active until filled, cancelled, or the market closes.
4. Shares can be sold any time before the market closes.
5. Markets may be suspended or cancelled for ambiguous outcomes.
6. All balances and positions are denominated in USD.
Each outcome settles on its own terms. For “Above 4.00%”: If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 4.00% following the Federal Reserve's Jun 9, 2027 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. This market will expire the first 2:05 PM ET following the release of a Federal Reserve statement for their Jun 9, 2027 meeting or one week following the last day of that meeting. Resolved using Federal Reserve Board of Governors.
This Economics market on OpinionKings has 25 outcomes. “Above 4.00%” leads at 99%, up from 95% a week ago. The next most likely outcome, “Above 0.00%”, is at 97%. Each price is the probability traders currently assign to that outcome, and it moves as they buy and sell. Trading closes Jun 9, 2027.
