As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 17% probability that the United States has announced the opening of an embassy or consulate of the United States of America in Iran before Jan 1, 2028. 2 outcomes · resolves Jan 1, 2028.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
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Each outcome settles on its own terms. For “Before 2028”: If the United States has announced the opening of an embassy or consulate of the United States of America in Iran after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. The embassy/consulate must be opened or have a specific date on which it will be opened to be encompassed by the Payout Criterion. It also includes an embassy being re-opened after suspending operations. Resolved using The New York Times.
This Politics market on OpinionKings has 2 outcomes. “Before 2028” leads at 17%, up from 13% a week ago. The next most likely outcome, “Before 2027”, is at 1%. Each price is the probability traders currently assign to that outcome, and it moves as they buy and sell. Trading closes Jan 1, 2028.
