As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 27% probability that the President of Nigeria is the first leader among the above to leave office. 10 outcomes · resolves Jan 1, 2035.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
2. Trades execute at the current market price unless a limit order is placed.
3. Limit orders remain active until filled, cancelled, or the market closes.
4. Shares can be sold any time before the market closes.
5. Markets may be suspended or cancelled for ambiguous outcomes.
6. All balances and positions are denominated in USD.
Each outcome settles on its own terms. For “Bola Tinubu”: If the President of Nigeria is the first leader among the above to leave office, then the market resolves to Yes. An announcement that a leader will leave their position is not sufficient to resolve the Payout Criterion; the individual must actually leave and no longer hold the title. Resolved using Fox News, MSNBC and The Wall Street Journal.
This Politics market on OpinionKings has 10 outcomes. “Bola Tinubu” leads at 27%, up from 20% a week ago. The next most likely outcome, “Cyril Ramaphosa”, is at 12%. Each price is the probability traders currently assign to that outcome, and it moves as they buy and sell. Trading closes Jan 1, 2035.
