As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 84% probability that the U.S. produces at least 14.00 million barrels of oil per day, by before January 1, 2027. 4 outcomes · resolves Dec 31, 2026.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
2. Trades execute at the current market price unless a limit order is placed.
3. Limit orders remain active until filled, cancelled, or the market closes.
4. Shares can be sold any time before the market closes.
5. Markets may be suspended or cancelled for ambiguous outcomes.
6. All balances and positions are denominated in USD.
Each outcome settles on its own terms. For “At least 14.00M bpd”: If the U.S. produces at least 14.00 million barrels of oil per day, between Issuance and before January 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. For the purposes of this market, 1,000 thousand barrels per day = 1.00M bpd. Resolved using ABC, Axios and CBS.
This Economics market on OpinionKings has 4 outcomes. “At least 14.00M bpd” leads at 84%, down from 91% a week ago. The next most likely outcome, “At least 14.10M bpd”, is at 52%. Each price is the probability traders currently assign to that outcome, and it moves as they buy and sell. Trading closes Dec 31, 2026.
