As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 86% probability that USDA NASS reports that Mississippi’s upland cotton production for 2027 is above 600,000 bales. 6 outcomes · resolves Jan 31, 2028.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
2. Trades execute at the current market price unless a limit order is placed.
3. Limit orders remain active until filled, cancelled, or the market closes.
4. Shares can be sold any time before the market closes.
5. Markets may be suspended or cancelled for ambiguous outcomes.
6. All balances and positions are denominated in USD.
Each outcome settles on its own terms. For “Above 600,000 bales”: If USDA NASS reports that Mississippi’s upland cotton production for 2027 is above 600,000 bales, then the market resolves to Yes. The Underlying is USDA NASS’s reported Cotton, Upland - Production for Mississippi for the 2027 crop year, measured in 480-pound bales. Use Cotton → Cotton, Upland → Production → 480 LB Bales. Resolved using Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
This Economics market on OpinionKings has 6 outcomes. “Above 600,000 bales” leads at 86%, down from 92% a week ago. The next most likely outcome, “Above 700,000 bales”, is at 77%. Each price is the probability traders currently assign to that outcome, and it moves as they buy and sell. Trading closes Jan 31, 2028.
